Jahmyr Gibbs is due for a breakout performance
Fantasy owners are being too hasty to judge the rookie's workload
One of the bigger story lines this NFL season is the slow burn of the Detroit Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. After being drafted 12th overall to a team that boasted one of the league’s most explosive offenses the previous year, fantasy football owners couldn’t wait to get their hands on the player many people dubbed the next Alvin Kamara.
But through two games, Gibbs is ranked as the 125th overall player in fantasy football despite having an average draft position (ADP) as the 33rd player off the board in full point PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues.
In the week one win against the Kansas City Chiefs, Gibbs logged 7 carries for 42 yards while also bringing in 2 receptions for another 18 yards for a total of 8.0 fantasy points (PPR). He also slipped on a would-be touchdown near the goal line that would have brought his total just above 14.0 fantasy points (PPR). A good start for a rookie that shares the backfield with another talented RB in David Montgomery. Gibbs also showed off his explosive abilities by breaking off a couple of chunk plays, the largest going for 18 yards.
In the week two loss against the Seattle Seahawks, Gibbs logged 7 carries again, but was only able to gain 17 yards. A solid drop off in yardage. However, his production through the air increased to 7 receptions on 9 targets for 39 yards. He went on to finish with 12.6 fantasy points (PPR). A good number for most players and a number you would expect from your flex option or your RB2. But if you have Gibbs on your squad, he’s more than likely in your RB1 spot and you wanted a little more.
One thing that hurt to watch in both of these games was the amount of touches Montgomery accumulated compared to Gibbs, especially near the goal line. So far this season, Montgomery has 37 carries for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns, earning himself 13.4 and 12.4 fantasy points (PPR) respectively in weeks one and two. This has come as a shocker to many, especially after Lion’s OC Ben Johnson’s now famous quote where he exclaimed the Lions will use Gibbs in “ways people don’t quite think we might”.
But when we’re looking at week three against the Atlanta Falcons, things should are very different. Montgomery went down with a thigh injury against Seattle and is currently listed as doubtful for Sunday.
So what does this mean for Gibbs workload?
The Falcons currently allow the 11th most rush yards per game this season at 119 yards per game. With Montgomery out, Gibbs touches are sure to increase. Detroit is likely to use RB3 Craig Reynolds as their power back and they also brought up former Jets RB Zonovan Knight from the practice squad. But I predict a takeover from Gibbs in what many Lions fans and analysts believe to be a must win game.
Gibbs will finally cross the 10 carry threshold and will still see a lot of action in the passing game. My prediction is he will finish week three with 17 carries for about 84 rush yards and 6 receptions for roughly 43 receiving yards. He will also reach the endzone for the first time in his career. This will put him at 24.7 fantasy points (PPR) and provide fantasy owners with the game they’ve been waiting for.
The wait will be worth it, and a big game like this will not only boost Gibbs’ confidence for the future, but Johnson’s faith in the rookie as well.